Ask the Expert: A Scientific Perspective on the L.A. Fires
When the hills above Los Angeles exploded in flames early last month, Matt Rahn snapped into action.
Rahn, though, isn’t a firefighter who was called into duty to help battle what became one of the biggest and most destructive fires in California history. Rather, he’s a wildfire researcher at Cal State San Marcos who, in 2019, created a unique degree program called Wildfire Science and the Urban Interface. He’s also the executive director of the Wildfire Conservancy, a nonprofit research foundation dedicated to serving the state’s firefighters and protecting its communities.
The wildfires that devastated the L.A. area, and even caused minor damage in pockets of San Diego County, have been contained. But the significant problem of grappling with ever larger and more dangerous fires fueled by climate change is only growing worse, and Rahn can be found permanently stationed on the front lines of that fight.
Question: What was the nature of the work you were doing during the L.A. fires last month?
Matt Rahn: I and my team at the Wildfire Conservancy have been doing research related to firefighter health and safety. Specifically, we have been conducting an exposure study related to the toxic, hazardous and carcinogenic materials firefighters are exposed to in a wildland urban interface fire. We are collecting data on exposures using silicon wrist bands (as a passive sampling device that is extremely good at absorbing all the contaminants firefighters are exposed to). We compare these to urine and blood samples taken from firefighters to track exposure to substances like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (or PAHs), volatile organic compounds (or VOCs), heavy metals and other compounds. We use a variety of techniques, including micro RNA analysis that can measure the change in gene expression, particularly those responsible for either causing (or suppressing) cancer.
Q: What was your reaction when you first heard about the fires? Could you have imagined that it would ever get that bad in the nation’s second-most-populous city?
MR: Sadly, I wasn’t shocked. For over 10 years now, we have been saying what is now common vernacular: We no longer have a “fire season,” we have a year-round fire risk. And we no longer have “wildfires” but rather fires in the wildland urban interface (or WUI), which is the area where human development and infrastructure meet undeveloped wildland or natural areas. But this change began much longer ago.
In 1991, in a remarkable and singularly cataclysmic event, the Oakland Hills became engulfed by a devastating fire that resulted in 3,280 homes lost, 25 fatalities and 1,520 acres burned. At that time, the loss was unthinkable; by today’s standards, the Oakland Hills fire, while still tragic, is certainly not the largest of its kind. That resulted in renewed recognition of the dangers posed by fires in the WUI and prompted new research and development into improved prevention and suppression methods, policy, and procedure of these kinds of fires. Unfortunately, that focus was short-lived, and over a decade would pass until California experienced another devastating wildfire, this time in San Diego County, that would grab national attention.
Engulfing more than 280,000 acres, destroying 3,241 homes and causing the loss of 16 lives, the 2003 Cedar fire surpassed all records and became the most devastating fire in California’s history. With a total economic loss of nearly $2.5 billion, we realized that the devastation was not contained to acres burned; the fiscal impacts to our communities far outweighed the actual cost of fighting this megafire. Even with a peak of 6,635 firefighters battling the blaze, suppression was less than 2% of the total cost of that wildfire incident.
For more context, since 1970, the U.S. has witnessed a roughly 300% increase in acres burned each year. Fifty years ago, wildfires would burn about 3 million acres per year across the entire U.S.; today, a single fire in California can consume one-third of that historic national acreage. So, fast forward to the fires in Paradise, California in 2018 and the 2023 fires in Maui, where over 100 people lost their lives. Sadly, we all should have seen this coming.
Q: Do you think there’s any merit to the criticism that city officials could have done more to keep the fires from getting so out of control? Or was this strictly a scenario of worst-case environmental conditions?
MR: Persistent drought, hot and dry temperatures, and extremely high winds in a community not built to modern standards for wildfire-prone areas were dangerous starting conditions for any fire event. The high winds provided an extremely short opportunity to prevent a conflagration. These winds also prevented the use of aerial attacks in the early stages of the fire. Fire agencies were left with ground resources, battling one of the most difficult and hazardous fire storms in U.S. history. Given the extreme fire behavior and conditions, the ultimate suppression and containment of the fires and prevention of additional losses was due in large part to the remarkable firefighter staffing and surge capacity that was mobilized.
It’s easy, if not dangerous, for folks so quickly to criticize agencies and municipalities, and make a tragic incident like this a political talking point. Organizations like Cal Fire, L.A. City and County Fire, and even the National Institute of Standards and Technology are all working to recreate the mobilization of resources and try to understand how response impacted outcomes. This is a very complicated and labor-intensive process that needs to be completed.
Q: If I’m remembering correctly, the worst fires in the state over the last decade or so have been in Northern California, including the Camp fire in 2018. Do you think Southern Californians had acquired a false sense of security and complacency?
MR: Unfortunately, many communities acquire a false sense of security and complacency. We see this year after year. When there is smoke in the air and a major incident that galvanizes our communities, state and nation, all the attention is given to that fire, with a collective promise that we will not forget and will work to keep our communities safe. But as time passes (and in some cases, not much time can pass), communities become lax in their collective efforts for fuel reduction programs, maintaining defensible space or other factors that can significantly contribute to community resilience. We cannot allow this to occur.
In fact, the Wildfire Conservancy along with some of our instructors in the Wildfire Science and the Urban Interface degree at CSUSM have teamed up to address this exact issue. We were awarded a grant from the FEMA Fire Prevention and Safety program in support of community resilience and advanced training support for Maui. Together with the County of Maui and Maui’s fire department, emergency operations and community associations, the Wildfire Conservancy will build on existing programs with the Responding to the Interface (RTI) program (from Cal Fire and the International Association of Fire Fighters) as the foundation for working with high-risk communities to develop a comprehensive and customized WUI firefighter training tailored to Maui and its communities, and create an annual event that is designed to improve community resilience, awareness, outreach and education. We are working to bring this effort to a national stage starting with Maui and continuing to California and beyond.
Q: What have you heard from the fire crews that were battling the blazes in L.A.?
MR: We have so far connected with hundreds of firefighters from Cal Fire, L.A. Fire Department, L.A. County Fire Department and other departments like Santa Barbara, Ventura, Fillmore, Oxnard and Pasadena. They are just now beginning to catch their collective breath and recover from these incidents. They are keenly aware of the exposures they have experienced in these fires. The success won by those “boots on the ground” may come at a significant personal and societal cost. The fires resulted in extreme high-level exposures for responding firefighters, at a scale not seen since Sept. 11, 2001. Many of us in the scientific community are speculating that these fires may well constitute an exposure incident that far exceeds that momentous day. The full impact has yet to be realized.
Q: How long have you been a scholar and researcher of wildfire science? How did you first get involved in it as a discipline?
MR: I began working on wildfire issues shortly after the Cedar fire in 2003 and became more fully engaged in research after the Witch and Guejito fires in 2007. My first projects were focused on things like fire sensors to provide early detection of wildfires in remote areas and economic impact studies related to the Cedar fire. I then moved quickly into research on attack effectiveness, completing the seminal study on wildland firefighter staffing that is still used to this day as the standard for helping advocate for proper state firefighter staffing. We then moved quickly into firefighter health and safety, given the impacts we were seeing related to cardiac events, dehydration and heat illness, and cancer. Since then, my time and effort on wildfire and urban interface fires has increased dramatically, culminating in the new degree program at CSUSM in 2019 and the launch the same year of the Wildfire Conservancy.
Q: How has the field evolved over the years as wildfires have gotten bigger and more destructive?
MR: We have been ringing the bell on wildfires and the WUI since the early 2000s. Back then, we were using terms like “the new normal.” Today, everyone is keenly aware of the risks, and the number of agencies, organizations and individuals involved in answering the call has increased significantly. Our first symposium on these issues was held a little over a decade ago in Sacramento, in partnership with Cal Fire and Cal Fire Local 2881. Experts from around California and the nation gathered and agreed that wildland firefighting was easily a decade behind structural/urban firefighting. The recommendation was to increase research and education programs in response to this. CSUSM has helped lead that effort with the new degree program, and organizations like the Wildfire Conservancy have formed to prioritize some of the most pressing issues facing our communities and first responders.
Q: How would you describe CSUSM’s wildfire science program and what it does?
MR: The degree program is unique. It’s focused on the WUI as its primary mission, educating our next generation of firefighters to deal with the unique issues related to these kinds of incidents. Clearly there is a need, and that need is growing. It is no longer just a California issue or something that is particular to the western U.S. Nearly every community in the nation has some kind of risk related to WUI fires. Providing the training and education for that growing risk is critically important.
What makes this program unique is that it was designed with firefighters and key agencies, including Cal Fire, the fire departments of San Diego and L.A., the U.S. Forest Service, NIST, and many other departments from around the country. We designed our curriculum based on their input, and it includes coursework in community planning and resilience, firefighter health and safety, wildfire law and economics, kinesiology and fitness, and even emerging tools and technologies. Our program also offers a course in firefighter mental and behavioral health, the first of its kind in the nation. The program is designed for working professionals, is fully online and has the ability to put a pause on coursework for students who may be deployed to major incidents during the semester. And yes, several of our own students were working on the L.A. fires.
We are lucky to have some of the foremost experts as instructors for some of the more specialized courses, and several remarkable faculty members at CSUSM also are teaching in this program. One last thing I should mention is that each student, at the end of their last semester, works with us to conduct their own “senior thesis” and research project focused on WUI issues. I’m happy to say that three of our former students will publish their research papers in the new Journal of the Wildfire Conservancy, a new science journal produced through the CSU system.
Q: CalMatters did an award-winning investigative series called “Trial by Fire” in 2022 about the traumatic toll of wildfires on firefighters, almost akin to being in war. How concerned are you about that, and what are some steps you’d recommend to deal with it?
MR: Modern firefighters are responding to some of the most horrific, toxic, hazardous and carcinogenic incidents ever imagined, working in environments where the human body was never meant to be. They are sleep-deprived and regularly experience potentially traumatic events that can affect their mental health. We are seeing the results of this today through rising rates of cancer (far higher than the general population), increased rates of suicide and suicidal ideations, and high rates of heart attack and stroke. We can and must do better for those who are sacrificing themselves (and their families) in service to our communities. This is why we started the degree program and launched the research foundation. I know this is the thing that motivates so many of our fantastic researchers, faculty, instructors and students who have dedicated their careers to helping.
Q: I know funding, and the lack thereof, is a big part of this, but how would you like to see firefighting improve to confront the threat posed by bigger wildfires fueled by climate change?
MR: We need to give our fire agencies the resources, staffing and technology they need to respond to these events. We absolutely do need more boots on the ground, air attack resources and access to new tools and technologies. We also need a significant investment in personal protective equipment and advanced technologies that can reduce occupational exposures and risk. Fire prevention is also a big piece of the puzzle. We need to take the commitment to fuel management and defensible space seriously, and dedicate the resources needed to create long-term, large-scale sustainable efforts. We also need to rethink our laws, codes and regulations related to housing, businesses and infrastructure, and invest in programs that can better inform future decision-making, land-use planning and community-wide wildfire protection plans.
Q: What lessons are you taking away from the L.A. fires? Should we be rebuilding in these fire-devastated areas? How can we make such communities more resilient?
MR: We as humans tend to build in high-risk areas, whether they are fire-prone or at risk from floods, earthquakes, tornadoes or hurricanes. We have made remarkable strides in addressing community resilience and facility-hardening across many of these high-risk areas, including wildfires. We know what can and does work, and considerable investments are being made to develop new materials, designs and strategies to increase protection. However, none of this works if we continue to allow for poor planning and fail to provide for programs to help improve and retrofit existing communities. It will continue to fail if we don’t take our commitment to fuel management and defensible space seriously. And it will fail if we don’t take immediate action finally to fund a full-time, year-round fire service through Cal Fire and provide our struggling fire agencies the staffing and resources they need to do their job. In addition, we desperately need a significant overhaul to California’s insurance laws and regulations. Each of these issues by itself is not a solution and can easily fail when handled alone. However, if we think of each issue as a separate stick, when they are bundled together, they form a stronger and more resilient unit. We are all in this together.
Media Contact
Brian Hiro, Communications Specialist
bhiro@csusm.edu | Office: 760-750-7306
Latest News Release
- CSUSM Among Nation’s Best in Money’s 2025 ListCal State San Marcos received 4.5 out of a possible 5 stars on Money magazine's list of “Best Colleges in America" for 2025, which was released last week. The list, which includes 732 colleges, showcases the country’s top values, based on graduation rates, cost of attendance, financial aid, alumni salaries and more. For the third year in a row, Money presented its picks on a 5-star scale to demonstrate colleges' relative performance without a numbered ranking, which the magazine says can often overstate small differences between relatively similar schools. CSUSM was also on Money's list of “Best Public Colleges,” "Best Colleges in the West" and "Best Colleges with High Acceptance Rates." Twenty-two of the 23 California State University schools made the list, including nine that earned five stars. Media Contact Eric Breier, Interim assistant director of editorial and external affairs ebreier@csusm.edu | Office: 760-750-7314
- Vice Provost Chosen for Prestigious AcademyCal State San Marcos Vice Provost Mary Oling-Sisay was among 36 higher education leaders selected to participate in the prestigious Executive Leadership Academy (ELA). The Council of Independent Colleges (CIC), the American Association of State Colleges and Universities (AASCU), and the American Academic Leadership Institute (AALI) collaborate to offer ELA participants unparalleled learning, mentoring and networking opportunities. The ELA kicked off the year-long program with an in-person seminar June 16-17 in Washington, D.C. The ELA has a highly selective application process, and the program prepares experienced provosts and vice presidents as the next generation of college and university presidents. The CIC and AASCU each selected 18 leaders from member institutions to ensure representation from both independent and state-supported colleges and universities. “I'm humbled to have been selected,” Oling-Sisay said. “The ELA enables a deeper dive into higher education leadership with distinguished colleagues from around the nation alongside leading experts. I look forward to sharing and applying what I learn to enhance the great work underway here at CSUSM.” Since its inception in 2009, over 100 individuals who have completed the ELA program have been appointed as presidents or chancellors of colleges and universities. The ELA program equips those moving into presidential and senior executive roles with the diverse skills necessary to navigate the ever-changing challenges of the higher educational landscape. “At a time when working in higher education feels particularly challenging, the participants of the ELA program show how committed they are to the sector and their institutions,” CIC President Marjorie Hass said. “CIC is fortunate to partner with AALI and AASCU to provide this opportunity to leaders at our member institutions and prepare them for the challenges ahead.” Some key features of the ELA program consist of a tailored professional experience plan aimed at addressing the specific skill and experience gaps of each participant; mentorship provided by the participant’s current president alongside the ELA program director; guidance on the executive search process; and access to peer-led webinars, regional meetings and cohort-wide activities. The ELA cohort will convene in June 2026 for a closing seminar in Washington, D.C. Oling-Sisay was one of two people from California selected along with Ben Corpus, the vice president of Enrollment Management and Student Affairs at Cal State Monterey Bay. Media Contact Eric Breier, Interim assistant director of editorial and external affairs ebreier@csusm.edu | Office: 760-750-7314
- Business Student Wins Back-to-Back National Surfing TitlesCal State San Marcos surfer and business student Tanner Vodraska captured his second consecutive national title at the National Scholastic Surfing Association (NSSA) Interscholastic Championships, held June 13-15 at Salt Creek Beach in Dana Point. Vodraska became the first CSUSM surfer to win back‑to‑back individual national titles and only the second college men’s shortboard competitor to do so in the past two decades. He is also the first repeat champion in the division since 2017. “Winning the NSSA national championship two years in a row feels like a massive accomplishment,” Vodraska said. “I’m super proud to see all the hard work and time I put into surfing really pay off when it matters the most.” After winning the 2024 title, the first in program history, Vodraska posted a strong 2024-25 regular season, reaching multiple finals and recording two runner‑up finishes. Vodraska advanced through the early rounds at Salt Creek with consistent performances. In the final, he faced the top three ranked surfers from the regular season: Jordy Collins from Western University, Hudson Sanders from Point Loma Nazarene University and David O’Keefe also from Point Loma. Vodraska posted the highest single wave score with an 8.33 (out of 10) and backed it up with a 6.0 for a winning total of 14.33. Collins followed with 13.26, Sanders with 11.93 and O’Keefe with 5.70. “I knew he was both motivated and capable, but the college men’s field is deep,” said Amber Puha, the faculty adviser of the surf club and the chair of CSUSM’s math department. “Everyone on our team knew Tanner would have to bring his ‘A’ game, too — and he did!” Now entering his final year at CSUSM, Vodraska also serves as president of the surf team. “I want to motivate this team and push them to do better and better in their everyday lives,” Vodraska said. “I also hope to bring the school a surf team that won’t be forgotten.” Vodraska said the CSUSM surf program has played a major role in his college experience. “Being part of the CSUSM surf team has brought me support that I’ve never felt before from my teammates,” Vodraska said. “This team has given me memories and good times in college that I’ll always carry with me.” Media Contact Eric Breier, Interim Assistant Director of Editorial and External Affairs ebreier@csusm.edu | Office: 760-750-7314
- Faculty Innovation Fellowship Sparks Research CollaborationDeborah Feairheller and Justin Morris first met as part of the same new faculty training cohort when they arrived at Cal State San Marcos in 2022. Though part of different colleges – Feairheller a kinesiology professor in the College of Education, Health and Human Services and Morris a computer engineering professor in the College of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics – they reconnected as members of the second cohort of Faculty Innovation Fellows in CSUSM’s Innovation Hub. The program fosters innovation and entrepreneurial opportunities for students, faculty, and community and industry partners. While Feairheller and Morris were working on separate projects during the fellowship, their connection led to a new collaboration that has earned federal funding to advance their research. The project, “AI-Driven Models for Disease Detection in Cardiovascular Health,” was awarded a grant through the National Institutes of Health’s AIM-AHEAD Program for Artificial Intelligence Readiness (PAIR), which supports multidisciplinary teams focused on building capacity for AI/ML health equity research. Joining Feairheller and Morris on the project are computer science professors Ali Ahmadinia and Sreedevi Gutta. “By getting the award from AIM-AHEAD, we now have data available to us that we previously didn't have,” Morris said. “That can be another resource for us to improve our models and better understand what additional data we’ll need when we do go to collect new information with Deb.” Feairheller credited the innovation fellowship for providing the space to initiate those early discussions, which grew into a broader collaboration. “I'm really excited that we have access to this extra data,” Feairheller said. “Through this grant program, they're going to help us in creating a project proposal that will build on the idea that they have and also help enable future research in cardiovascular health and women.” Before joining CSUSM, Feairheller was at the University of New Hampshire where she focused on understudied populations affected by cardiovascular disease. Coming to CSUSM, she recognized the need for specific research in women. She is eager to use the AI modeling that Morris and his team will be doing to improve screening tools that could be used in her clinic to potentially enable more patients to be engaged in learning about their cardiovascular health. Feairheller noted the importance of recognizing the difference in the hearts of men and women. She said there is limited published research on how a female heart responds to stressors, exercise and other activity. “The clinical guidelines and the paradigms that physicians use to treat patients are following protocols that were derived on studies that were done primarily in men, so I really love that we're going to create these AI models,” she said. “And I really do hope that we can do something that is specific for females as well as for males because it might create ways that we can do screening that's very sex specific and could potentially save lives.” The “AI-Driven Models for Disease Detection in Cardiovascular Health” project got jumpstarted with initial data that had already been collected by Feairheller in her previous research working with women, which Morris said allowed them to improve their grant proposal by creating models based on that data. Both Feairheller and Morris emphasized the role the Faculty Innovation Fellows program played in bringing their collaboration to fruition, and they encourage other faculty to give the program a try. “The fellowship really helped us learn about each other's research,” Morris said, “and it facilitated impactful conversations.” Media Contact Eric Breier, Interim Assistant Director of Editorial and External Affairs ebreier@csusm.edu | Office: 760-750-7314
- Administrator Chosen for Premier Leadership ProgramViridiana Diaz, Cal State San Marcos’ vice president for Student Affairs, has been chosen for the 2025-26 Millennium Leadership Initiative (MLI) cohort by the American Association of State Colleges and Universities (AASCU). Diaz is one of only 26 higher education professionals nationwide to be selected. Programming for the MLI cohort will take place June 11-14 in Washington, D.C. “I’m honored to be part of the next MLI cohort and to learn alongside a distinguished group of higher education leaders from across the country,” Diaz said. “My goal is to bring back knowledge, tools and perspectives that will help me grow as a leader and better serve our students, staff, faculty and the entire CSUSM community. I’m deeply committed to our shared mission and excited to apply what I learn to strengthen our collective efforts.” Established in 1999, MLI is a premier leadership development program designed to prepare senior-level education leaders for the rigors of college and university presidencies or chancellorships through workshops, discussions and practical training. By connecting them to the expertise, experiences and resources they will need to thrive, participants become equipped to navigate the unique challenges presidents face in today’s complex higher education landscape. Throughout the program, the cohort will receive mentoring from experienced presidents and shadow their presidential mentors as part of MLI’s immersive experience. This support includes guidance from MLI’s President in Residence Mickey Burnim, who will serve as an adviser to the participants. Since MLI’s inception, 777 college and university leaders have participated in the program, with 166 going on to become university presidents or chancellors, while 46 have served multiple presidencies or chancellorships. “We are pleased to welcome the incoming cohort of talented and qualified individuals to MLI as they embark on their professional journeys to fill presidencies, chancellorships and other senior-level vacancies in higher education,” said Charles L. Welch, AASCU president and CEO. “For more than two decades, MLI has built a strong and lasting network of higher education leaders who reflect the rich perspectives and experiences of our nation and the students we serve.” Media Contact Brian Hiro, Communications Specialist bhiro@csusm.edu | Office: 760-750-7306
- Collaborative Effort Helps SLP Alumna's DaughterFor Lorin Keehr, Cal State San Marcos is more than the university where she earned her master's degree in speech-language pathology. It's a community where she continues to find support nearly a decade later. Keehr, who graduated in 2016, now works as a speech-language pathologist in the San Marcos Unified School District (SMUSD). She has remained closely connected to CSUSM, regularly supervising SLP graduate students working as interns in the district. In somewhat of a full circle moment for Keehr, she now sends her daughter to the CSUSM SLP clinic where she once trained as a graduate student. Keehr’s daughter Lyra was born with Nicolaides-Baraitser syndrome, a rare genetic condition that affects how a child grows and develops. It can cause learning difficulties, seizures, delayed speech, and unique physical features like coarse facial features or small hands and feet. Though Lyra will turn 3 years old in September, she weighs just 15 pounds and is still learning to walk independently. When Lyra's physical therapist recommended a walking device to improve her mobility, the SLP clinic was there to help. Lyra’s tiny frame meant a standard walking device wouldn’t work, and a custom-made one came with an exorbitant price tag. One of Keehr’s SMUSD coworkers suggested she talk to CSUSM about the possibility of developing something. Laura Coca, CSUSM’s director of clinical education for the SLP department and one of Keehr’s mentors while she was a student, reached out to engineering professor Reza Kamali, who is the faculty adviser for the university’s chapter of Tikkun Olam Makers (TOM), an assistive technology organization that matches students with people living with neglected disabilities. “It was such a wonderful opportunity for students to collaborate,” Coca said. “I cannot thank Reza and TOM enough. They were just so fast and so comprehensive.” Kamali and the TOM team had several meetings with Keehr and Lyra’s physical therapist. Less than four months later, they had created a lightweight walking device tailored for Lyra. “These experiences offered a unique opportunity for students to engage in community-based projects where they could see firsthand how their knowledge and skills could be applied to create meaningful change,” Kamali said. “Watching their product go from an idea to a tangible device used by a child in need was an emotional and inspiring moment for everyone involved.” Keehr said the additional support has helped Lyra in many ways, including socially, with play skills that she’s learning from the SLP clinic and in her general mobility. “I didn’t know what to expect, and that’s why I was pleasantly surprised,” Keehr said.“Since getting the trainer, she has been able to stand by herself for a few seconds. It’s definitely been helping with her development. "I'm just very grateful for both of those programs and what they're doing for the community. Trying to navigate the insurance world and all the paperwork and everything that comes with it, it's programs like the SLP clinic and TOM that make it just a little bit easier for families like ours. They’re people who have good hearts and just want to help their community. So I'm very grateful for making those connections and also being able to promote them to other families that I work with so that they can benefit from these services.” Media Contact Eric Breier, Interim Assistant Director of Editorial and External Affairs ebreier@csusm.edu | Office: 760-750-7314